How it goes down

Been a while, no? Well, my apologies. Though I am now unemployed, I still find ample opportunity to not have time to post here. How do I do it? Simple, really. First, my new daughter keeps me from sleeping soundly, then my other daughter keeps me busy during the day, then my allergies keep me from breathing, but then my doctor gives me new allergy medicine but doesn't tell me the major side effect is indigestion followed with abrupt diarrhea. In a way, it makes an unfortunate inharmonious lifestyle that I have yet to master.

Moving on.

Yes, I am still on a political kick, though it has subsided somewhat. Still, since that is my current modus operandi, let's continue along that path, shall we?

I've posted some rather doomsday-ish fodder for the USA in previous posts, but one has to ask what the final catalyst for the ending will be. So henceforth, I'll go into my opinion as to what will happen. Mind you, it is speculation at best so let's not be quick with the "crazy nut job" name calling.

What is the most likely cause of death for us? If you look at statistics, then heart disease would be the most prevalent human killer, at least in the US. Followed by cancer, and then a myriad of other medical complications such as diabetes, liver disease, etc. All of these illnesses come from within your body. They are not extrinsic such as car accidents or homicide, both of which are very low on the likely cause of death scenario.

Such is the case for the US. Our problem is from within. Great nations are not killed, they commit suicide. Since the turn of the 20th century, when the Federal government made the first income tax, up to the present, the founding principles have been eroded away on one law after another, extensively through the New Deal and the Great Society, and of course, right now. And for the most part, good people stood by and watched. Meanwhile, the populous as a whole became complacent and even worse, entitled. This wouldn't be so bad except that we couldn't really afford it as a country. This is evidenced today as we topped 10 trillion in national debt last year, and by some estimates, will be over 14 trillion before the end of Obama's first term.

But the national debt doesn't matter, right? We owe it to ourselves! Well, sorta. Here's what we do know; every year there is a Federal deficit, typically several hundred billion. We sell treasure bonds to offset this difference. Because as a country we have a AAA rating, that means anyone can buy our bonds and be repaid in the future. So, we hold a bake sale, and the lowest percentage bidder gets top priority. Countries, corporations/banks, and private individuals get a chance at these bonds. China has about a trillion dollars of our debt. Japan and England have about half a billion each, and the rest we own, mostly. This deficit is also offset by robbing from Medicare/caid. See, we are overtaxed just a bit on that program, so the government writes an IOU to Medicare for the rest and uses that money for the deficit first, then goes to the bonds.

So what happens when you have a deficit that is 1.7 trillion dollars and during a recession? Well, the potential buyers are fewer, and not only that, the amount of risk is higher too. This is what is happening right now. No one is buying our substantial debt. So what do you do to pay the bills? You make more money. In this case, literally, print off more. This causes inflation, obviously, and we're seeing it start now. Gas prices always go up in the summer because of demand. But this year, demand will be a lot lower because less people are working and, thus, going on trips -- we have lost +600,000 jobs every month since September except for May, which lost only 350,000 jobs. Gas has gone up almost $1.20 since the beginning of this year, and the major reason is to offset the diminished value of the dollar. It is only a matter of time before everything else catches up, if based solely on rising gas costs alone.

So here it comes. The cost of everything will slowly creep up, then quickly creep up as manufacturers try to mitigate the cost of production while maintaining a profit. So imagine working a job that pays $2,000 a month, only to have the price of milk at the beginning of the month be $2, and at the end of the month $3.50, then the following month $4, and so on and so forth. In a word, this is called hyper-inflation, and it is not out of the question.

Next comes rejection of taxes. After all, why pay taxes if they are just going to squander it on another failed program and make life even more miserable. Ever wonder why the president thinks we need national health care RIGHT NOW, in the middle of a recession? Another program that will require $1.6 trillion dollars to fund? How about we balance the budget, find a way to pay for it, then implement it after we know our funding? The people will revolt from paying taxes.

But that's just a side order to the real problem. In the trenches, people will be starving because the cost to live will be outrageous, coupled with possible food rationing and food riots. And since we've turned some fields into bio fuel production, it means we have just a little bit less for everyone (not to mention we feed people throughout the world with our superior farming techniques). Self-sufficiency will be paramount, but little good will that do you with all the armed armadas searching for food for their families. Maybe this is where that Corp that Obama wanted will come into play. This Corp was part of the GIVE Act that recently passed.

Let's go back to those Treasury bonds. Imagine if you were China and now hyper-inflation has surpassed your locked-in annual percentage rate. Every day that trillion dollar investment is worth less and less. Fortunately for the US, the bonds are only back by the dollar, a fiat system, and not the land or other resources. But if I were China, and I was losing trillion dollars, and my 35 million man army was bored, you could bet your bottom bond note that something would happen to make good on that investment. Besides, 1.4 billion people should be allowed to expand somewhere, and since the US would be broke... I should clarify that China does not have 35 million men in the military -- but it does have 35 million more men than women by population statistics. It does, however, have the largest military in the world, regardless.

If China, or some other country did attack the US, it would be a real boon for Obama, because then we are literally looking at a WWII situation here -- a national unifier to pull us all together against a common enemy, revamp our manufacturing base, and get us out of the recession. China has nothing to lose because they could easily take Taiwan back, maybe a few other places (perhaps even get parts of Japan or help North Korea gain access over South Korea) and then expend several million men if not for the sole reason of getting rid of extra mouths to feed.

At this point, I'd like to remind everyone (all 4 of you) that this is just speculation. And yes, I did have to run to the bathroom during an emergency encounter with my last meal moments ago. But I feel better, and I think I can jump higher now too. Less weight to deal with.

Part of the reason I see this all happening (and that last bit about China is not what I expect to happen -- just put it in there to scare ya a little) is that even if this recession ends, say, tomorrow, there is still the problem with the Federal government printing up over a trillion dollars worth of inflation. Worse is the probability that this deficit will not being funded next year either, with national health care costs added on top. Goods are going to cost more. This will either push the above mentioned scenario, or, potentially set up a global backed currency. Most likely both as the government will tell us it is the only way to get out of this recession, kinda like what happened with the stimulus bills, eh?

Lots of experts and economists are telling investors to buy gold, which is $930 an ounce as of yesterday. I'd sooner tell those of us who earn less than several hundred thousand a year to buy food and a way to defend yourself. Gold is expensive, and heavy, and not edible. Buy rice and Top Ramen -- just add heat and water and you have a decent meal. Plus, it is cheap to buy right now.

Well, I am sure this is enough doomsday shenanigans for today. Be mindful, watch for the clues, and also, prepare yourself just in case. Better safe than sorry, even if I am just babbling -- you know you still like Top Ramen anyway...